4  Results

4.1 Overall Cohort Characteristics

The mean age of the 1098 patients was 58.9 ± 11.5 years (median: 59 years, IQR: 51-67 years). Primary tumor locations were distributed as follows: 591 (53.8%) endometrial carcinomas, 497 (45.3%) tubo-ovarian carcinomas, and 8 (0.7%) synchronous tumors.

Regarding tumor grade classification, 368 (33.5%) were low-grade tumors (grade 1 and 2 endometrioid carcinoma), 692 (63%) were high-grade, and 27 (2.5%) were serous borderline tumors.

Table 4.1: Clinicopathologic Characteristics of the Study Cohort
Characteristic Value
Total Cases 1098
Age (years), mean ± SD 58.9 ± 11.5
Age (years), median (IQR) 59 (51-67)
Primary Tumor TumorLocation
Endometrial 591 (53.8%)
Ovarian 497 (45.3%)
Synchronous 8 (0.7%)
Tumor Grade
Low-grade 368 (33.5%)
High-grade 692 (63.0%)
Borderline 27 (2.5%)
Omental Metastasis
No metastasis 723 (65.8%)
Microscopic-only 46 (4.2%)
Macroscopic/Abundant 329 (30.0%)

The distribution of tumor grades across primary tumor locations is shown in Table 4.2. Tubo-ovarian carcinomas were predominantly high-grade (91.1%), whereas endometrial carcinomas showed a more balanced distribution with 59.2% low-grade and 39.8% high-grade tumors. All borderline tumors (n=27) were of ovarian origin.

Table 4.2: Distribution of Tumor Grade by Primary Tumor Location
Tumor Grade Endometrial (n=591) Ovarian (n=497) Synchronous (n=8) Total (N=1098)
Low-grade 350 (59.2%) 13 (2.6%) 5 (62.5%) 368 (33.5%)
High-grade 235 (39.8%) 453 (91.1%) 2 (25.0%) 692 (63.0%)
Borderline 0 (0.0%) 27 (5.4%) 0 (0.0%) 27 (2.5%)
Other 6 (1.0%) 4 (0.8%) 1 (12.5%) 11 (1.0%)

4.2 Omental Metastasis Distribution

Of the 1098 cases, 723 (65.8%) showed no omental metastasis. 329 cases (30%) had obvious/abundant macrometastasis. 46 cases (4.2%) had micrometastasis detected.

Figure 4.1: Distribution of Omental Metastasis Status

The distribution of omental metastasis status by primary tumor location is shown in Table 4.3. Macroscopic omental metastasis was markedly more common in tubo-ovarian carcinomas (56.7%) compared to endometrial carcinomas (7.3%). Microscopic-only metastasis was also more frequent in ovarian (7.2%) than endometrial (1.7%) carcinomas.

Table 4.3: Distribution of Omental Metastasis Status by Primary Tumor Location
Omental Metastasis Endometrial (n=591) Ovarian (n=497) Synchronous (n=8) Total (N=1098)
No metastasis 538 (91.0%) 179 (36.0%) 6 (75.0%) 723 (65.8%)
Microscopic-only 10 (1.7%) 36 (7.2%) 0 (0.0%) 46 (4.2%)
Macroscopic 43 (7.3%) 282 (56.7%) 2 (25.0%) 329 (30.0%)

4.3 Microscopic-Only Metastasis Cases

Among the 46 patients with micrometastasis, the primary tumor locations were: 36 (78.3%) ovarian and 10 (21.7%) endometrial carcinomas. Regarding tumor morphology, 43 (93.5%) were high-grade and 3 (6.5%) were borderline. No low-grade tumors showed micrometastasis in this cohort.

4.4 First Detection Analysis

Among the 46 microscopic-only metastasis cases, 46 (100%) had complete tracking data regarding the cassette number in which metastasis was first detected. The mean cassette number at first metastasis detection was 1.87 (median: 1, SD: 1.17, range: 1-5).

The distribution of first detection by cassette number was as follows: 24 cases (52.2%) in the first cassette, and 12 cases (26.1%) in the second cassette.

Table 4.4: Distribution of First Detection by Cassette Number
Cassette Number N Cases Percentage (%)
1 24 52.2
2 12 26.1
3 4 8.7
4 4 8.7
5 2 4.3
Figure 4.2: Distribution of First Metastasis Detection by Cassette Number

4.5 Detection Probability Analysis

We employed two complementary statistical approaches to estimate the per-cassette detection probability and ensure robustness of our sampling recommendations.

4.5.1 Geometric Maximum Likelihood Estimation

The geometric MLE approach, estimated from the distribution of first detection cassette numbers, yielded a per-cassette detection probability of \(q\) = 0.539 (95% CI: 0.451-0.639). This corresponds to a 53.9% probability of detecting metastasis in any single cassette.

4.5.2 Empirical Proportion Analysis

Across all 46 cases, a total of 276 cassettes were examined, of which 162 contained tumor. The empirical proportion yielded a detection probability of \(q\) = 0.587 (58.7%).

4.5.3 Comparison of Methods

Both approaches converge on the same clinical recommendation, with 4 cassettes achieving >95% detection sensitivity (Table 4.5).

Table 4.5: Comparison of Detection Probability Estimates
Cassettes Geometric MLE (%) Empirical Proportion (%) Difference (%)
1 53.5 58.7 5.2
2 78.4 82.9 4.5
3 89.9 93.0 3.1
4 95.3 97.1 1.8
5 97.8 98.8 1.0
6 99.0 99.5 0.5
7 99.5 99.8 0.3
8 99.8 99.9 0.1
9 99.9 100.0 0.1
10 100.0 100.0 0.0

The geometric MLE provides a more conservative estimate (q = 0.539), while the empirical proportion (q = 0.587) incorporates information from all cassettes beyond first detection. Both methods recommend sampling 4 cassettes to achieve >95% detection: geometric MLE predicts 95.5% and empirical proportion predicts 97.1% cumulative detection with 4 cassettes.

Figure 4.3: Cumulative Detection Probability by Number of Cassettes Sampled

4.6 Heterogeneity and Extent of Omental Involvement

Assessment of heterogeneity across cases revealed a coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.502 (50.2%), indicating moderate heterogeneity. Per-case positivity rates (proportion of cassettes with tumor) ranged from 10% to 100% (mean: 62.4%, median: 66.7%).

Analysis of multi-block involvement revealed that 35 of 46 cases (76.1%) had tumor in multiple blocks, while only 10 cases (21.7%) had tumor confined to a single block. The mean number of blocks containing tumor was 3.6 per case. Since the spatial relationship between sampled blocks was not recorded, we cannot determine whether multi-block positivity reflects clustered or diffuse omental involvement. However, the high proportion of multi-block cases indicates that most microscopic metastases involve a sufficient volume of omental tissue to be detected across multiple independently sampled cassettes, which supports the validity of the per-cassette detection probability estimates.

4.7 Beta-Binomial Sensitivity Analysis

As a sensitivity analysis accounting for inter-case heterogeneity in detection probability, we fitted a beta-binomial model to the per-case positivity rates. The estimated parameters were \(\alpha\) = 0.867 and \(\beta\) = 0.523, with an overdispersion parameter \(\rho\) = 0.419 (41.9%), confirming moderate heterogeneity. Under this model, the recommended 4 cassettes achieved 85.7% detection sensitivity, and 7 cassettes achieved 90.8% detection. The lower estimates compared to the geometric model (95.5% and 99.6%, respectively) reflect the conservative nature of the beta-binomial approach, which accounts for the subset of cases with very focal disease and low per-cassette positivity. The geometric model estimates represent the average expected detection across all cases, which is the relevant metric for protocol development, while the beta-binomial highlights that cases with minimal tumor burden remain the most challenging to detect.

4.8 Stratified Analysis by Tumor Burden

Cases were stratified based on the number of blocks containing tumor to assess heterogeneity in detection patterns (Table 4.6).

Table 4.6: Detection Characteristics Stratified by Tumor Burden
Tumor Burden N Mean First Detection Median First Detection Detected at Cassette 1 (%) Detected by Cassette 2 (%) Detected by Cassette 4 (%)
High (4+ blocks) 25 1.24 1.0 76 100 100
Low (1 block) 10 3.20 3.5 20 30 80
Medium (2-3 blocks) 10 2.20 2.0 20 70 100

Detection patterns differed significantly across tumor burden strata (Kruskal-Wallis H=18.81, df=2, p=<0.001). Cases with high tumor burden (4+ blocks involved) showed earlier detection (mean first cassette: 1.24) compared to low burden cases with single block involvement (mean first cassette: 3.2). Among low burden cases, only 20% were detected at cassette 1, but 80% were detected by cassette 4. This stratification demonstrates that the 4-cassette recommendation provides adequate sensitivity across the spectrum of tumor burden, being most critical for cases with focal disease.

4.9 Comparison by Primary Tumor Site

When examined by primary tumor site, the median first detection cassette for micrometastasis was 1.5 (mean 2.2) in endometrial cancers (n=10) and 1 (mean 1.78) in tubo-ovarian carcinomas (n=36). This difference was not statistically significant (Mann-Whitney U test, p=0.495; mean difference 0.42, 95% CI: -0.46 to 1.33; rank-biserial r=-0.133).

Figure 4.4: Comparison of First Detection Cassette by Primary Tumor Location

4.9.1 Stratified Cumulative Detection by Primary Tumor Site

To evaluate whether sampling recommendations should differ by primary tumor site, we computed separate cumulative detection curves for ovarian and endometrial carcinomas (Table 4.7; Figure 4.5).

Table 4.7: Cumulative Detection Probability by Primary Tumor Site
Cassettes All Cases (%) Ovarian (%) Endometrial (%)
1 53.5 56.2 45.5
2 78.4 80.9 70.2
3 89.9 91.6 83.8
4 95.3 96.3 91.1
5 97.8 98.4 95.2
6 99.0 99.3 97.4
7 99.5 99.7 98.6
8 99.8 99.9 99.2
9 99.9 99.9 99.6
10 100.0 100.0 99.8

The per-cassette detection probability was higher for tubo-ovarian carcinomas (q=0.562, 95% CI: 0.462-0.692) than for endometrial carcinomas (q=0.455, 95% CI: 0.333-0.714), though the confidence intervals overlap substantially. Ovarian carcinomas reached the 95% detection threshold at 4 cassettes, whereas endometrial carcinomas required 5 cassettes. However, due to the small number of endometrial micrometastasis cases (n=10) and the wide, overlapping confidence intervals, this difference should be interpreted with caution and does not provide sufficient evidence to recommend different sampling protocols by primary tumor site at this time.

Figure 4.5: Cumulative Detection Probability by Primary Tumor Site

4.9.2 Micrometastasis by Tumor Grade

Stratification of detection probability by tumor grade was not feasible because no low-grade tumors (0 of 368) exhibited microscopic omental metastasis in this cohort. All 46 microscopic-only cases were either high-grade (43, 93.5%) or borderline (3, 6.5%). The absence of micrometastasis in low-grade tumors, while not proving that it cannot occur, suggests that the clinical yield of extensive omental sampling in confirmed low-grade endometrioid carcinomas may be limited. This observation may have implications for risk-adapted sampling strategies, though it should be validated in larger studies specifically powered to detect low-frequency events in low-grade tumors.

Table 4.8: Incidence of Microscopic Omental Metastasis by Tumor Grade
Tumor Grade Total Cases Microscopic Metastasis Incidence (%)
Borderline 27 3 11.1
High 692 43 6.2
Low 368 0 0.0
Other 11 0 0.0